Pennsylvania Predictions

It is hard to predict the delegate count outcome for the (very) long awaited Pennsylvania Democratic primary because of the complicated means in which the 158 pledged (i.e. non-super) delegates are determined.

However, everything starts with the outcome of the statewide vote count and the congressional district vote counts, so I'll start my prediction there.

As expected, we've seen much the same pattern in Pennsylvania as we did in Ohio, where Obama was able to significantly reduce the gap in the polls. In Ohio Obama didn't close the deal and Clinton won the popular vote 54% to 44%. Yet she only picked up 9 delegates more than Obama for her efforts. In Pennsylvania, Obama was 15% to 20% behind in the polls six weeks ago, but has narrowed that number to somewhere between 5% and 10%. I'm going to predict a 53%-47% margin for Clinton in the statewide vote.

So now to the delegate count.

103 pledged district-level delegates will be elected on Tuesday. These delegates will come out of 19 different congressional districts, each with only between 3 and 7 delegates, making for little ability for either candidate to make big delegate count gains because a 53%-47% win in a 7 delegate CD will result in a 4-3 split.

An additional 35 pledged at-large delegates will be chosen by the Pennsylvania Democratic State Committee in proportion to the statewide primary vote. That same 53%-47% win would produce a 19-16 split.

Finally, 20 Party Leaders and Elected Officials (PLEOs) will make up another proportionally split set of delegates based on the statewide primary vote. A 53%-47% win would produce a 11-9 split of PLEOs.

So, with that said, I'm going to predict that Clinton wins 85 delegates and Obama wins 73, giving Clinton only a 12 delegate gain, far short of the 130 to 150 delegates she need to draw even with Obama on that count.

I'll also predict that Clinton will not drop out after this primary, despite what will be a relatively disappointing narrow win given her large lead in the polls in Pennsylvania just last month. However, she will be pressured to win in Indiana and North Carolina on May 6th, or else drop out at that time, but given her stubborness so far I doubt that she will even drop out then.