85% and 15%: A Tale of Two Votes

85%. That's the estimated voter turnout in Sunday's French presidential elections, that resulted in a first round that saw Nicolas Sarkozy, on the right, receiving over 30% of the vote, and Ségolène Royal, on the left, picking up almost 26%. The two candidates will face each other in a run-off vote in two weeks time, offering French voters their first true choice of candidates in 12 years.

While the other losing Leftist candidates have announced their support of Royal, initial polling gives Sarkozy a solid 54%-46% lead against the Socialist Party candidate. What remains to be seen is whether the "Anyone but Sarkozy" sentiment will be enough to stir an upset for Royal. Centrist candidate, François Bayrou, who received over 18% of the vote, holds the keys to l'Elysée. Bayrou ran a campaign that painted Sarkozy, as others did, as a scary choice for France, yet exit polls indicate that his supporters will split down the middle for the two remaining candidates. If Bayrou publicly declares a preference for a candidate that should seal the deal. At this point it may be Royal's only hope to become France's first woman president.

15%. That's what observers in Nigeria's presidential elections believe was the turnout due to voter apathy, confusion, violence and organizational flaws. Candidates and monitors have called for the results to be tossed out and a new election to be held.

I wonder if the folks at Sound Politics will bother to latch onto this result, as they did with the Ukrainian election a couple of years ago. Somehow I doubt they care about an election in Africa, although as the world's 8th largest exporter of oil, we should all be concerned that these historical elections, the first of their kind in Nigeria, might be tainted by events and election problems. It seems that so much of the world's oil resides in countries with unstable governments, and we could do with one less of those these days thank you very much.

Cross-posted at World View.