Cantwell / McGavick Polling Gap Stable - For Now

A latest Stategic Vision poll from the end of last month shows Maria Cantwell at 49% with her Republican challenger Mike McGavick's 39%. Undecideds are a 12%.

Polling from December, February and March show the gap between the two to be remarkably stable, a high of 11% in December, at 8% in February and now 10% in March. The Undecideds have been 11% or 12% on all three polls.

This is good news for Cantwell as it shows McGavick hasn't made a dent in her lead.

So far.

However, as the race progresses, it isn't hard to imagine that McGavick will try to undercut Cantwell by taking an anti-Iraq War stance that could appear to be more popular than Cantwell's silent, and quite stubborn one, with her refusing to budge from her position of three years ago. In fact many believe this will eventually become McGavick's ace in the hole play in this campaign, and that Cantwell needs to preempt the strategy with a more palatable statement about the Iraq War of her own.

For now, her numbers still look good, and McGavick helps her out by cozying up to Big Oil and Big Dick, and allowing the Alaskan delegation to be a great influence on his campaign (make no mistake about it, a vote for McGavick will equate to a vote for Ted Stevens of Alaska). How long this tactic will work is a gamble the Cantwell camp appears ready to take despite the concerns of those that support her.