On The Road To 2008 - Commentary on issues as we countdown to the next opportunity to change the direction of America

Sunday, November 13, 2005

Living In Bush World

It's going to be a very long three years for Republicans in Congress.

Bush poll numbers have been plummeting faster than ever of late. The numbers below show recent polling results from various source captured at PollingReport.com.

This isn't just bad news for Bush. It is also terrible news for Republicans seeking to retain their seat in the House or in the Senate over the next three years. It is not likely that Bush's numbers will ever substantially improve. Even another attack on American soil would be hard pressed to give Bush positive approval ratings, let alone the numbers he enjoyed four years ago after 9/11, for after all should such a catastrophe occur the man people thought was going to keep them safe would have failed at that too.

So in the meantime, Republican candidates are probably going to being to trying to run campaigns in which they distance themselves from the Bush administration. For many Republican voters who have soured on this presidency, this will likely be viewed as a welcome approach. For many Independent voters this might also present them with an attractive option. Democratic candidates would do well the be wary of such tactics and not concede the moderate center to right wingers that might try to claim it for their own.

Yet getting out from under the Bush shadow will be very hard. Bush is increasingly viewed as incompetent by even his own natural supporters. He is his worst enemy when he opens his mouth. His administration is being dogged by scandal and ethics violations. Libby is out, Rove may follow, and Cheney is scoring few brownie points these days. The incumbent Republicans in the House and Senate are one by one becoming targets of scandals and ethics violations of their own, or simply being arrogant to the extreme. The whole party is increasingly demonstrating itself to be out of touch with American values and concerns at both a national and a local level. Any squeaky clean Republican candidate (and I'm making the assumption some exist) will be immediately branded as "one of them" by an already turned off electorate.

Problem is just as all Americans are stuck with this administration for the next three years, most definitely so are Republicans. While we may be able to shift the nation's congressional leadership in 2006 to the left, should it happen the best Republicans can hope for is that it happens quickly and painlessly. After that we could very well see an already irrelevant second term Bush agenda become a long lost bad memory as Congress works toward more bipartisan legislation. Unless Bush suddenly gets veto happy, we may very well see some long needed fiscal responsibility taking hold again in D.C., and something getting done about social ills, like poverty, health care and racial injustice, that continue to plague this country like a cancer.

Yes, it is going to be a long road to 2008 for Republicans (1086 long days until Nov 4, 2008, to be precise), yet nothing like how long it has felt for Democrats and most Independents since January 2001. Welcome to our daily hell.

2 Comment(s):

Comment by: Anonymous Darryl

What is remarkable about the poll numbers is the low variance in results. Typically there is a spread (95% CI) of +/- 3.5 points across all major polls (see Polkatz). The last 2 weeks of results show a spread of under +/- 1.5 points.

Some component of the spread comes from biases among polls, so perhaps polls are becoming more honest as right-wing polls stop protecting Bush. But, also, I think it means there is lower day-to-day variation within individuals (fewer borderline cases).

If I am right, the last 35% will go down with the ship. On the other hand, the 65% are pretty well entrenched in the "negative on Bush" camp, so Bush will have great difficulties winning 'em back.

11/13/2005 1:17 AM PT  
Comment by: Blogger Daniel Kirkdorffer

You may be right that we've hit rock bottom, but we've seen the Republican disapproval numbers going up lately, and I still think 30% is possible.

Bush's numbers are becoming truly Nixonesque. Nixon was in the 50's and 60's when he started his second term, then hit the mid-30 range late that year, was solidly under 30 by the following January, and resigned in August at his lowest approval rating of 23%.

11/13/2005 1:32 AM PT  

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