Post Election Iraq - What Happens Now?

Last weekend's Iraqi elections were certainly historic. It is always a feel good story when ordinary citizens in effect combat guns and terrorism with the sheer numbers of determined voters. Just as one cannot kill every terrorist, as another will surely spring up to take his place, one cannot suicide bomb every polling place in an effort to disrupt an election.

So what happens now?

In purely technical terms, this election was to choose 275 members of a transitional national assembly. That assembly will select a new President and two VPs. The new top leadership will appoint a new Prime Minister. A new cabinet will ensue. When all is said and done few expect the choices to differ from the interim leadership of Allawi and al-Yawer.

The assembly will attempt to draft a new constitution by August 15, with a referendum on the constitution to be held by October 15. A new round of elections for a more permanent government is planned for December 31.

So that's the projected timeline, however optimistic. Yet while that's going on what is life in Iraq likely to be like?

It seems most likely that we'll continue to see daily terrorist attacks by jihadists, insurgents, criminals, fascists, dead enders, or whatever you want to call them.

Iraqis unhappy with the presence of American and Coalition forces in their country, and eager for the sweet taste of self-determination, had a choice in the run-up to the recent election: participate in the new democratic process, sit on the sidelines and watch, or take aggressive action against the invaders.

Those that chose to participate and vote will be looking forward to an Iraq with a newfound voice that might demand a withdrawal of foreign troops. How strong a sentiment this will be is yet unknown, but it will surely have some influence with those unhappy with foreign occupation. A very real fear for many will be that people may become disillusioned by the pace of reform, and reconstruction, and convert to a more aggressive outlet for their frustration and animosity.

The insurgency thus has an opportunity to gain more recruits depending on the temperament of the uneasy populace. Couple that with the potential ethnic political power struggles that are likely to ensue between Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds, and we have a recipe for civil unrest - a concern of many observers who have been taking a wait and see approach to these elections, particular those within neighboring nations.

The extremists that wanted to literally blow up any chance for the elections to occur will not have been persuaded to end their reign of terror by the turnout. Likely they will feel an increased urgency to do further damage. Reports indicate that Draconian security measures that kept vehicular traffic from flowing surely helped keep the violence down on election day, but one cannot rely on such an approach to thwart suicide car bombers every day. For a nation to undergo an economic rebirth traffic and commerce must flow, which will also mean the suicide bombers will be able to as well.

With six months between now and the next voting opportunity, we should expect several significant internal issues to dominate Iraqi concerns.

One will be how well reconstruction efforts progress - a monumental task, and one that until now has been viewed by common Iraqis as a huge failing by an American occupier they had expected to magically solve all these problems in short order.

Another will be the likely trial of Saddam Hussein (remember him?), which surely will have as cathartic an effect on Iraqis as the right to vote did. While voting was all about the future, Saddam Hussein's trial will open past wounds. Emotions will be high.

A third issue will be how quickly an Iraqi army can take over security operations, and become a legitimate fighting force that supports the democratically elected leadership. Coalition, and particularly American forces need to be able to withdraw out of view of regular Iraqis, who begrudge their constant presence. Indications are that in general Coalition troops were not prominently visible during Sunday's elections. This was a good start, and Iraqis will be happy to see their own countrymen policing the streets instead. Likewise, Americans will be looking forward to the day their military presence can be reduced. We do not know what the neo-cons have up their sleaves, although we suspect they'd love to leave behind a number of permanent military bases.

A fourth issue will be how the majority Shiite and Kurdish leadership will reach out to the minority Sunnis. Indications are that efforts will be made to protect minority interests. Not everyone will be content though, and the big unknown is how that might translate into confrontation, or even violence. Consider how minority Democrats feel today in this country and multiply that animosity by a number of factors and one might get a slight sense of what it might feel like to be a Sunni in Iraq these days, without a history of orderly civil dialog to guide emotions and actions.

How these issues play out together will effect how Iraqis choose to respond going forward. Whether to remain patient, or become frustrated. Those on the sidelines will dwindle in numbers given the polarization potential of ongoing basic infrastructure failures or a trial that gets messy. Will Iraqis consider the problems they face as their own, or continue to look to others to solve them for them?

The elections were a positive first step forward. The road ahead will be fascinating to observe. As Thomas Friedman of the New York Times has stated, what is happening in Iraq is not nation building it is nation creation, and the outcome of the next year in Iraq will have far reaching consequences in the region for years to come.

Yet, we cannot blindly rejoice and forget how it was we arrived at this point. The past two years have been laden with mismanagement and poor decision making of major proportions. By the end of 2005 the effort will have cost close to $300 billion, caused tens of thousands of American casualties as well as many times that of innocent Iraqis, and greatly hurt American influence and leadership in the world. It has been a huge price to pay, regardless of the outcome, and we as citizens must not let up in demanding accountability from the leaders responsible, and expecting that we as a nation will learn from the lessons of the past, so as to never repeat them again.