Hoosier Hysteria
We're supposed to believe that a state that will surely vote for John McCain in November should be decisive in this Democratic nomination race?
That's pretty messed up.
Posted at 4/24/2008 10:52:00 PM PT
Permanent Link
5 Comment(s):
Hillary Clinton's Last Hurrah!
Hillary Clinton's win in Pennsylvania with a 9.2% margin is indeed decisive and a morale booster. However, this translates into a pledged delegate pick of 10 only Hillary's 84 to Barack's 74. In the overall pledge delegate count Barack leads Hillary by 1494 to 1333, a lead of 161 delegates.
In Pennsylvania, the core constituencies voted in their usual pattern i.e. young, well off as well as African Americans for Obama and women for Clinton. The blue collar white workers however made the difference as they were not able to overcome racial prejudices and tilted the primary in Clintons favour. Most polls did indicate that Clinton will win by between 6 and 10 per cent. A poll conducted by a local university came closest to the actual result.
Pennsylvania is Hillary's last Hurrah as Obama is leading by over 15 points in North Carolina and is almost even in Indiana. Mathematially, Hillary has no chance to gain a lead in pledged delegates. But who cares about them, the Clintons (both Hillary and Bill) used all the dirty tricks they could against Obama to win Pennsylvania. New York Times was quite right to criticise their Republican like tactics. It seems that Clintons are hell bent on snatching the nomination even if their fight destroys the Democratic Party. This has already given respectability to McCain, who was otherwise visibly a weak candidate.
There is however no indication that Hillary will quit after Indiana and North Carolina. Clintons will probably go even more negative and use Karl Rove style strategy (James Carville is beginning to sound more like him every day) in order to muddy the waters and confuse super delegates so they hold off siding with Obama. Their game plan seems to be that if there is no clear nominee until the convention they can then deploy back room bargaining to win on the second ballot. This process will weaken and damage the Democratic Party and their chances of winning the White House in November will be greatly reduced.
According to latest Rasmussen Reports, Hillary is still viewed negatively by 53% voters (highest amongst the three candidates) and despite Pennsylvania they give Obama an 81.1% chance of winning the Democratic nomination (link below).
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
It is now up to the Democratic Party leaders and elders to decide if they want the fight to go on to convention floor in August and lose the White House in November or decide on a nominee after May 5 primaries. This can be accomplished by asking the 300+ uncommitted super delegates to decide now.
300 or so uncommitted, even if they all go one way or the other, I don't think it's enough to avoid a second ballot.
I haven't run the numbers lately, but I think it will also take a fairly large swing of "committed" PLEO's to avoid the floor fight.
Dave Gibney
good point, but after north carolina and indiana barack will be even closer and if he can pick up a chunk of supers, he will cross the finish line.
That is true Ajaz !
Indiana will be the 'CRACKER'.
As Sen. Hillary Clinton has ‘managed’ to take the Pennsylvania state, the Democratic race for nomination is very much alive – and most likely to be decided by superdelegates. Indiana ,Idaho and west Virginia are still to come.
If you’re tired of waiting around for those super delegates to make a decision already, go to LobbyDelegates.com and push them to support Clinton or Obama
If you haven't done so yet, please write a message to each of your state's superdelegates at http://www.lobbydelegates.com
It takes a moment, but what's a few minutes now worth to get Obama in office?!
Sending a note to current Obama supporters lets them know it's appreciated, sending a note to current Clinton supporters can hopefully sway them to change their vote to Obama, and sending a note to the uncommitted folks will hopefully sway them to vote for Obama. It's that easy...
Clinton Supporters:
It takes a moment, but what's a few minutes now worth to get Clinton in office?!
Sending a note to current Clinton supporters lets them know it's appreciated, sending a note to current Obama supporters can hopefully sway them to change their vote to Clinton, and sending a note to the uncommitted folks will hopefully sway them to vote for Clinton. It's that easy...
REALLY easy to identify the superdelegates and reach out to them ! It includes a list of names, addresses, and affiliations of superdelegates from each state including your state
Hello
I believe that this years 2008 political campaign has been very contreversial. And to stir it up so more, Hilray's last win in Pennsylvania state was moving. I still believe that Obama has the advantage because i see him as a man more for the people. I agree that Hilary has done a good job in campaigning and that this race is a very close one
This race will come down to the very end. obama and clinton have a long road ahead of them to win the hearts of the people and i believe that Obama is the man for the job. His issuses on the iraq war are strong and he will help our nation become stronger and more united. THis is the man for the job and i cant wait to see what happens.
Post a Comment
All comments are welcome, however, rather than posting an Anonymous comment please consider selecting Other and providing your name or nickname so others know who you are. Thanks.
Links to this post:
Create a Link