Calculating a Realistic Clinton Win is Next to Impossible

Last week Jonathan Alter wrote an interesting article for Newsweek in which he plays with Slate's Delegate Calculator to see just what Clinton needs to do to beat Obama in pledged delegates going forward.

With the help of Slate’s Delegate Calculator I've scoped out the rest of the primaries, and even if you assume huge Hillary wins from here on out, the numbers don't look good for Clinton. In order to show how deep a hole she's in, I've given her the benefit of the doubt every week for the rest of the primaries.

Alter goes on to suggest various (mostly improbable) outcomes for the upcoming races, and comes up with totals that still have Clinton trailing Obama.

I've taken this exercise one step further:

Source: Slate

If you update the calculator for the Wyoming result, and then give Clinton a 62% to 38% win in every state left over, she still trails Obama by 1 pledged delegate!

How likely is that? Must you really ask? She's only once done better than 60%, and that was in Arkansas.

So what happens when you factor in the latest polling, and try and enter more reasonable numbers?

Source: Slate

With the above postulations, Obama retains a 117 pledged delegate lead despite Clinton picking up 22 delegates in Pennsylvania.

But what about those disputed Michigan and Florida results, you say?

If new voting was arranged, even if Clinton were to pick up 50 delegates from Michigan (which would be a ridiculous 70%-30% win) and another 50 from Florida (which would be an equally unlikely 64%-36% win) on Obama, she'd still be trailing.

Or get this, if somehow they let the original results stand and seated the delegates, even if she picked up 38 delegates from the flawed Florida results (105 delegates to Obama's 67), and 73 from the flawed Michigan results (assuming none of the 55 uncommitted delegates switch to Obama), she'd still come up 6 delegates short of Obama's total!

So the next time you hear anyone say that Clinton could turn this thing around, simply suggest that they take a look at the numbers so that they can see for themselves that she cannot beat Obama in total pledged delegates.

I'll give Alter the final word:

Hillary would then have to convince the uncommitted superdelegates to reverse the will of the people. Even coming off a big Hillary winning streak, few if any superdelegates will be inclined to do so. For politicians to upend what the voters have decided might be a tad, well, suicidal.