Predicting Iraq

Pundits are asking: will Iraq be a major issue in the 2008 presidential election?

Contrary to many who believe otherwise, I have always felt that had Kerry been elected he would have kept troops there longer than Bush will, simply because to pull them out prematurely could result in instability in the entire region. As for Bush, he will increasingly be pressured by Republicans to minimize the political fallout, and to seek an exit strategy that would reduce the US presence in Iraq considerably, while still maintaining enough of a strategic foothold in the region, politically and via military bases.

The 2006 US elections, only 2 years from now, is therefore very likely to be the artificial deadline for some kind of positive movement (or removal) of troops back to the homeland. Between now and then scheduled Iraqi events will provide the perfect excuse. Parliamentary elections are planned for January 2005, which are intended to produce a new Prime Minister from the party that gains the majority. Following the creation of a new Iraqi constitution we are told to expect a new round of national elections in 2006. At that point, should everything occur as planned, Iraqis should supposedly be fully autonomous, with elected leaders and a trained Iraqi army. The Bush administration could very easily be asked to pull US troops out by the new Iraqi government, with or without some US coaxing. George Bush would then be able to walk away from the Iraq situation, mission accomplished (again?), with Republicans waving the US flag all the way to a massive triumph at the polls in 2006, and likely in 2008.

A significant withdrawal of forces from Iraq is likely in both the event that the situation improves or worsens. Should things get worse, then the exit may occur as early as late next year. Republicans will not want to be burdened any more than necessary by a protracted quagmire in Iraq. Democrats won't be able to resist using the continuing problems as a renewed argument for change. This time voters who previously voted based on moral values might be persuaded of the futility of the effort. Even without another potential terrorist attack on US soil you have the makings of a very difficult situation for incumbents, of which more Republicans will be looking to retain their seats than Democrats.

We've seen how quickly a political party's fortunes can be reversed by a discontent citizenry. Republicans would be foolish to believe their current dominance cannot be wiped out. The Iraq war and aftermath will be a lingering concern well into the 2008 campaign season that will start in 2007. Events will not progress fast enough to resolve matters early enough for it not to be. World security, economic costs, lives lost, will all be issues on the table for future presidential candidates to debate. Come 2008 it may be deja vu all over again.